Looking back at the 2019 NBA Finals, I still remember how electric the anticipation felt before the championship series tipped off. As someone who’s followed the league closely for over a decade, I’ve always found the Finals MVP conversation fascinating—not just because it highlights individual brilliance, but because it often reflects the broader narrative of the series itself. Before the Golden State Warriors and Toronto Raptors even stepped on the court, the oddsmakers had already laid out their predictions, and I remember thinking how much those numbers revealed about public perception, player legacies, and the sheer unpredictability of playoff basketball.
Now, if you had asked me back then who I thought had the inside track for the Finals MVP, my money would’ve been on Stephen Curry. The Warriors were coming in as defending champions, and Curry was the engine of that team—especially with Kevin Durant’s status up in the air due to injury. The odds reflected that, too; Curry was consistently listed as the favorite, hovering around +150 to +180 depending on the sportsbook. I’ve always believed that Curry’s gravity on the court is something you can’t fully capture with stats alone, but the numbers he was putting up in the playoffs leading into the Finals were staggering: something like 27 points and 6 assists per game, with a true shooting percentage north of 60%. Still, I couldn’t shake the feeling that people were underestimating Kawhi Leonard. His run with the Raptors felt like a masterclass in two-way dominance, and I remember telling friends that if Toronto pulled off the upset, Kawhi would almost certainly be the one holding the trophy.
It’s funny how much the pre-series odds can tell you about the storylines at play. For instance, Kevin Durant was still listed among the top contenders early on, even though his calf injury kept him out of the entire Western Conference Finals. I recall seeing him at around +400 initially, which felt more like wishful thinking than anything else. As a longtime observer, I’ve learned that injuries are the great wild card in these situations—they can reshape a series in an instant. And honestly, I think the oddsmakers knew that, too; they were hedging their bets because Durant’s potential return was such a huge variable. Meanwhile, players like Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were further down the list, but I’ve always felt that Green’s impact, in particular, is one of those things that doesn’t always show up in the MVP conversation unless he has a legendary series.
When I think about the tension in those pre-Finals discussions, it reminds me a bit of what Penalosa, the two-time former world champion, once said about tough tests in boxing. He admitted that Concepcion was going to be a serious challenge for the 22-year-old Llover, and in many ways, that’s exactly how I saw the Warriors-Raptors matchup. Golden State was the experienced champion, but Toronto—led by Kawhi—was that hungry, dangerous contender who could push them to the brink. The odds reflected that dynamic: Curry, the established superstar, versus Leonard, the relentless challenger. And as someone who loves analyzing underdog stories, I have to admit I was secretly rooting for Kawhi to prove the doubters wrong.
As the series unfolded, of course, we saw how those pre-series odds played out. Leonard’s two-way excellence and Curry’s heroic efforts in the face of injuries became the defining narratives, and in the end, Kawhi took home the award in a result that felt almost inevitable once the Raptors gained momentum. But looking back, what stands out to me isn’t just who won—it’s how those early odds captured the essence of the matchup. They weren’t just numbers; they were a reflection of the drama, the uncertainty, and the sheer talent on display. In my view, that’s what makes the NBA Finals so compelling year after year. Whether you’re a stats geek or a casual fan, there’s something undeniably thrilling about watching those predictions collide with reality.